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Whether it is NCAA hoops or the NBA, this site provides you with all of the necessary tools to make the basketball wagering season a profitable one. This site was developed to give you the competitive edge over the “house” with all of your basketball plays.
Providing all of the best basketball news, betting tips and betting advice; this site is a must read for any basketball bettor looking to turn a profit over the long haul.
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NBA: Game 3 brings big-time revenge angles
2009-06-10
The Lakers and Magic head to Orlando to resume their NBA Finals’ series, with Game 3 coming Tuesday night. Judging by the numerous angles focused on the concept of revenge, we should expect the Magic to climb back into the series in a lower scoring game. Take a look at some of these revenge trends as we preview the game, then head on over to the GAME MATCHUP page for more key betting information. Orlando is a 4-1/2 point favorite, but according to the Sportsbook.com Betting Trends, only 52% of bettors are leaning that way, a low percentage for this magnitude of a game.
By now everyone knows the Lakers head to Orlando with a 2-0 lead, but if the Magic’s botched layup/missed goaltending call at the end of regulation had been scored, this series would be tied 1-1. That is all the difference in the world according to history, as only three teams have ever come back from this deficit to win the NBA Finals, most recently the Miami Heat in 2006.
The “comfortable” lead has not changed Kobe Bryant’s focus however. Bryant has a promise for Game 3 on Tuesday night.
"We're about to kick it up," he said. "You'd better believe it. We're close. You see what I'm saying? This is the finals. We're going to be ready to go."
Courtney Lee missed a wide-open, alley-oop layup that would have won Game 2 at the fourth-quarter buzzer Sunday night. It was another chapter in a long history of Magic misery, one that now has them 0-6 in finals games.
Orlando has been able to come back from seemingly every heartbreak this season - injuries, four last-second losses in the playoffs and series deficits in two rounds. But this could be too tough a challenge.
"We've just got to go home and take care of business," Magic center Dwight Howard said. "The Lakers did a good job of protecting their home, and now it's our turn to do the same thing. We've been in some tough situations. We've just got to fight our way out."
The Magic would need quite a turnaround. Their backcourt has been dreadful. Rafer Alston and Jameer Nelson, who returned for the finals after being out since early February because of shoulder surgery, were so inconsistent that Van Gundy benched them for most of the fourth quarter to have 6-foot-10 forward Hedo Turkoglu run the point.
The Magic had 20 turnovers, just 22 assists and no true ballhandler to make the Lakers pay for double-teaming Howard.
Don’t consider the series over yet however. One of the streakiest teams in the league all season, Orlando has shot well at home. It plays with a carefree attitude, and Bryant says that's reason to be wary.
"This is a very loosey-goosey team we're playing against," he said. "You seen some of the shots they hit. Those are tough shots - supposed to be tough shots. For them it's like shooting fish in a barrel. They're just thinking about Game 3, and so are we."
As mentioned in the opening, one of the key handicapping concepts backing the Magic for Game 3 is REVENGE. Orlando boasts several Top StatFox Power Trends focused on this motivation. Including the Game 2 Magic ATS win and UNDER result, here are a few of the revenge angles that will be in play for Tuesday’s Game 3:
* ORLANDO is 33-11 ATS (+20.9 Units) revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ORLANDO 102.2, OPPONENT 93.9 - (Rating = 3*)
* ORLANDO is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) revenging 2 straight losses where opp scored 100 or more points over the last 3 seasons. The average score was ORLANDO 100.9, OPPONENT 100.5 - (Rating = 1*)
* ORLANDO is 28-13 ATS (+13.7 Units) revenging a road loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ORLANDO 101.6, OPPONENT 95.0 - (Rating = 1*)
The Lakers have been a solid bet as a road dog though. Over the last two seasons, they are 24-12 ATS in that role.
In terms of the total, revenge for Orlando may also play a role in taking this game UNDER the posted number of 198:
* ORLANDO is 26-15 UNDER (+9.5 Units) revenging a road loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ORLANDO 101.6, OPPONENT 95.0 - (Rating = 1*)
Tip time is set for 9:00 PM ET on ABC.
NBA: Orlando looks to even the score (8:05 PM ET, ABC)
2009-06-08
The great thing about the NBA Finals is no matter how magnified a blowout win or loss is, it only counts for one game. The Los Angeles Lakers showed in Game 1 against Orlando why they were favored to win the NBA title, with conclusive 100-75 mauling. This was the third consecutive full team effort from the Lakers, who might be finally matching everyone’s expectations. Orlando will try to bounce back in Game 2 on Sunday night. Most bettors don’t believe they will, as with the pointspread set at Lakers -6.5, over 90% of the early action goes that way according to the BETTING TRENDS page.
If Kobe Bryant continues with the “mean face” he might land a few minor acting roles as villain or thug. The way he played in the series opener, he might be on his way to MVP after scoring 40 points, while dishing out eight assists and snaring the same amount of rebounds. It was rather evident, Bryant was setting the tone for the Lakers intensity and anybody wearing a gold uniform that wasn’t going to play hard, might as well grab some bench or face the wrath of Kobe the Terrible.
The Los Angeles defensive game plan was brilliant, holding Orlando to 29.9 percent shooting. The Magic are unlikely to shoot as woefully again in the series, nonetheless the difference between how Cleveland defended Orlando’s long range shooters and what the Lakers did was clear. The Cavaliers defense is more structured and is not as good straying 20 feet away from the rim. Los Angeles, when focused, has the athletes and length to contest three point shots and when Orlando players give ball-fakes and drive to basket, a number of tall Lakers are part of the greeting committee.
That was the Lakers first cover of a NBA Finals game in last dozen tries (1-10-1 ATS) and it does not guarantee they will cover the 6.5-point spread at Sportsbook.com for next contest. Since 1997, the last 20 teams that won by 10 or more points are only 12-8 and 10-8-2 ATS in next contest.
You have to chuckle about what teams say about injuries. Jameer Nelson was either “definitely out” or “will not play under any circumstances”, yet a guy wearing number 14, with “Nelson” on a back of deep water blue Orlando jersey played better than 23 minutes in the opening contest. Coach Stan Van Gundy may have opened the Pandora’s Box in letting Nelson play so much, as Rafer Alston was rendered useless. Alston is smart enough to know Nelson is a better shooter, probably a better playmaker, but it was he who took over the squad at the point guard and helped bring the team into the Finals.
Nelson was immediately effective upon hitting the floor, however after about the six minute mark of playing; he was ineffectual like the rest of his teammates. Van Gundy has potentially hazardous situation to workout.
The Magic got away a little too quickly from the big man in the middle, when the game was still within reach just before the midpoint of third quarter. Dwight Howard totaled six shots, with ONE make and was 10 for 16 from the charity stripe. Orlando offense works best most nights when they play inside-out, giving the touches the broad-shouldered one has requested. The Magic are 15-4 ATS off a road loss and 14-3 against the spread if it is by double digits.
Orlando complained outwardly about not being mentally ready, but what they were really saying they weren’t ready for was Kobe and the Lakers actually prepared to play 48 minutes. The Magic have had two days of preparation to make adjustments and forgettable loss is easy to shake for a team that is 13-5-1 ATS who about 71 hours between assignments.
Phil Jackson will presume Howard will see the ball with a higher frequency and be more aggressive in taking it to the hoop. His players might need to be a few inches even closer in second encounter, with Orlando likely hitting more of their shots. Offensively, keep attacking the Magic off the dribble and have motion that sets up Lamar Odom and Luke Walton for interior baskets. The Lakers also are very solid off two days of rest with 8-2 ATS mark.
The total has been reduced to 202 and L.A. is 12-2 UNDER as a postseason favorite. You have to figure the Magic bunch can’t play any worse and are 20-11 UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 200.
The start time Sunday for Game 2 moves up an hour to 8 Eastern and Hedu Turkoglu and the guys will have to bring more game if they expect to improve upon recent 7-2 ATS run.
NBA Finals Wagering Preview
2009-06-04
“Do you believe in Magic?” Whether you like the original hit song by the Lovin’ Spoonful from 1965 and the countless times it has been used in television commercials or the updated version by Disney Channel’s Aly and AJ, the question remains the same. Do you believe in the Orlando Magic? Oddsmakers and most bettors don’t, instead choosing to side with the heavily favored Lakers (-260) for the series, according to Sportsbook.com.
Dwight Howard and his gang of long range bombers have certainly been up to the test, eliminating Philadelphia as expected, Boston as presumed (without Kevin Garnett) and Cleveland most unexpectedly. In many ways Orlando has grown up right before our very eyes.
The Magic gave away games to the Sixers and Celtics, yet closed out each on the road to advance. When LeBron James made thaumaturgy shot to save Cleveland in Game 2 of East Finals, Orlando could have suffered carry over, yet did not.
We have seen the maturation of Dwight Howard from somewhat passive Clark Kent to angry superstar, demanding the ball and when the pill came his way, put up exemplary numbers to lead his team. Even coach Stan Van Gundy, who has been come under much scrutiny (here for example), has grown as head coach, working out details with Howard and not letting ego get in the way and has his team four wins away from being NBA champions.
Do you believe in the Magic?
Oddsmakers, like those at Sportsbook.com don’t seem to, making the Lakers -260 favorites to take the series. The most popular exact game wager is Los Angeles in six (+220 bet). Others don’t necessarily see it that way.
Mark Lawrence of Playbook.com offered this about The Finals - “Interesting technical aspects conflict in this matchup. The Lakers have been miserable in championship finals the past two rounds, going 3-8 SU and 0-10-1 ATS. On the flip side they've pushed the Magic around in the series, going 29-10 SU and 24-12-1 ATS, despite dropping both games this season. The feeling here is it would be no surprise if either team wins.”
Also made a call to Joe Nelson of Nellysports.com, who is on the Playbook roster and he gave his insights. “The Magic made at least ten 3-point shots in all four games against the Lakers in the regular season the last two years, winning three of the four games. Orlando shot over 40 percent in the Eastern Conference Finals and if they continue to shoot well from long-range, the Magic will win this series and become the NBA champions.”
Nelson added, “The Lakers are a heavy favorite for the series but with the Magic winning twice in Los Angeles in the regular season (last two years), it would not be a surprise to see Orlando steal one of the first two games. Much like last season the Finals will feature extreme coast-to-coast travel with over 2,500 miles separating these venues. The Lakers went 0-6 ATS in Finals last season and Los Angeles was just 5-5 ATS in home contests in the first three rounds of the playoffs. With two impressive wins to wipe out Denver in the Western Conference Finals the Lakers have alleviated some of the concerns raised early in the playoffs but this will be a tough match-up for Los Angeles and Orlando has the talent and versatility to be a serious threat in the series despite the solid underdog status.”
Orlando has given several reasons to like them. The Magic are 12-7 in the playoffs and after dropping first four games to Philly as favorites, they are 11-4 ATS since. Orlando is 5-5 SU and ATS on the road under postseason pressure and 32-19 straight up and against the number for the entire season. Hedo Turkoglu and the fellas can play with teams scoring bundles of points, because of perimeter shooting and are 16-4 ATS in road games versus offensive clubs scoring 103 or more points a game.
The Lakers have shown unwillingness to go all out until necessary since the playoffs started, which could prove fatal against Orlando. Denver made a ton of long range shots in first four encounters against Lakers, due to poor defensive rotations. Derek Fisher is still defensive liability and Lamar Odom; it depends which multiple personality shows up at game time. Howard has the strength and power to push around Pau Gasol and draw fouls expediently on Andrew Bynum.
“Do you believe in Magic”
Steve Makinen of StatFox.com thinks Orlando can cause Phil Jackson’s squad trouble, just not enough to wager against them. “Last I saw, Orlando swept this regular season series, while the Lakers took both games from the Cavaliers. In my opinion, oddsmakers have inflated the line of Game 1 of the NBA Finals by at least 1-1/2 points, installing L.A. as a 6-point favorite. If you recall last year, Los Angeles was overwhelmed in the finals by an outstanding defensive club in Boston. While Orlando isn’t quite as good overall or defensively as that team, the Magic are still strong enough to compete and possibly win this series. In the end I figure it comes down to how well Orlando shoots it from the perimeter. If it’s anything like the regular season in which the Magic made 12 3-point shots in each game versus the Lakers, they will win. However, I think the series format of home court advantage (2-3-2) favors L.A., and that will be the deciding factor.”
Everything since being humiliated 131-92 in Game 6 at Boston last year has pointed to this for Los Angeles. The Lakers are well-rested and are 8-1 ATS when playing only their second game in seven days this season. Gasol showed his wherewithal in making big baskets in Games 5 and 6 against Denver and could force Howard into foul trouble if he becomes overaggressive.
Rashard Lewis and Turkoglu are primarily perimeter players and if Odom shows up mentally and Trevor Ariza continues to distinguish himself, the Lakers should be able to hold down the scoring of this duo. On the other end of the floor, Odom can be a handful for either, with inside and outside capabilities. The Lakers bench has become increasingly more useful, as the dates have come off the calendar since the end of the regular season. Jordan Farmar, Shannon Brown and Luke Walton have all given efficient minutes since mid-May.
Then you have the “Kobe” factor. Bryant was denied ring he so dearly wants last season and has been on a mission since. He’s still selfish from time to time, however, in the last couple of years, that has had more to do with desire to win, than just wanting to improve image. Whether it is Courtney Lee or Mickael Pietrus trying to defend Bryant, he should school them individually and carve up Magic defense when they try and double team with his crisp, accurate passes.
Lastly, is the coaching difference. Phil Jackson was strangely out-maneuvered by Doc Rivers last spring, however in hindsight, Boston had more players motivated towards a cause and Rivers pushed all the right buttons with what was a better team. Jackson was at his best against Denver. After getting a read on exactly what the Nuggets were doing, he had his team effectively took away what Denver did best in last two games and Chauncey Billups and Carmelo Anthony were disabled after strong beginning.
Like any coach, when things are going well, they look smart, when they don’t, it’s about how they react. If the Magic lose first two games at Staples Center, does the surly side of Van Gundy return? If the Lakers are able to deny Howard touches, does that create more friction between Superman and the coach? It has been Van Gundy’s M.O. to micromanage when situations become stressful, how will he respond? This could be telling factor in this series.
The action starts Thursday night on ABC, with Lakers as 6.5-point favorites and total of 206. Before placing wager, know the underdog is on 6-0 ATS roll.
Do you believe in the Orlando Magic?
NBA: Lakers stir pot, try to chew up Nuggets (9:00 PM ET, ABC)
2009-05-29
It turned out to be true; Kobe Bryant of the Lakers really does have teammates that want to win and are willing to put forth the effort to do so. Because Kobe finally was comforted with company, Los Angeles is within one game of return trip to NBA Finals, though not without a little controversy along the way, which makes for good playoff fodder. After reading more about this Game 6 Western Conference Finals encounter, be sure to head right over to the LIVE ODDS, BETTING TRENDS, and TEAM STATISTICS pages for the latest info to make sure you’re on the right side of the wagering action.
An anonymous member of the Denver Nuggets told the Denver Post, "The Lakers paid $50,000 to win that game," he said. "They got their money's worth." He was referring to 25 grand in fines David Stern’s minions handed out to coach Phil Jackson and the Lakers organization for comments after Game 4.
Denver’s George Karl lamented essentially, the squeaky wheel gets taken care of and the Lakers got the benefit of calls for critical Game 5. Evidently Karl has no sense of history, since this coaching showmanship has gone on since Eddie Gottlieb’s Philadelphia Warriors defeated the Chicago Staggs to win first ever NBA title in 1947.
Having watched the entire game with no sound (don’t ask, just trust it made sense to me), I never got the sense the officiating was one-sided. I did however take note that Denver stopped taking the ball to the rim in the fourth quarter and was 5 for 21 shooting in last 12 minutes. I also noticed the strong interior defense of Denver completely fell apart in the fourth quarter, as the Lakers ran screens to set up isolation plays and scored six baskets that I recall within three feet of basket.
The first 17 minutes of the game was played like any regular season game, as neither team was emotionally involved, until both teams had manufactured exciting dunks, which revved up the crowd and the emotions of players.
Lamar Odom, showed why he can be the difference between L.A. being among the best teams, to NBA champs when he adds 19 points, 14 rebounds and 4 blocks. Derek Fisher tossed in a dozen points and though he saw limited minutes, Andrew Bynum contributed when on the floor. In fact, the Lakers bench outscored the Denver reserves 34-26, which is telling, with final margin of victory nine points.
Denver is 17-7 ATS revenging a road loss and is backed into corner. The Nuggets never matched the same intensity they had the first two games in La-La Land, even as they built seven-point lead midway thru the third quarter. This was proven as they had no answer to blunt Lakers rush that saw them run off 23 of next 28 points to wrestle control of contest. The Lakers finally challenged Karl’s troops with unfamiliar style, playing intense defense.
The Lakers enter Game 6 as five-point underdogs and are 8-3 ATS when Sportsbook.com or another oddsmaker places them in that position. Only one game has exceeded the total in West Finals and Los Angeles is 9-1 UNDER in conference finals. Denver is 7-0 against the number off a straight up loss and is 8-1 ATS as home favorites. Of the last 12 games the Nuggets have played against winning teams, 10 have gone UNDER the number.
It’s do-or-die for Carmelo Anthony and mates, and as the Lakers have shown, they don’t necessarily have the killer instinct to polish off opponent. If should be quite an atmosphere at the Pepsi Center, with Denver trying to avoid falling to 3-11 ATS when trailing in playoff series and head back to downtown Los Angeles for Sunday showdown.
2009-06-10
The Lakers and Magic head to Orlando to resume their NBA Finals’ series, with Game 3 coming Tuesday night. Judging by the numerous angles focused on the concept of revenge, we should expect the Magic to climb back into the series in a lower scoring game. Take a look at some of these revenge trends as we preview the game, then head on over to the GAME MATCHUP page for more key betting information. Orlando is a 4-1/2 point favorite, but according to the Sportsbook.com Betting Trends, only 52% of bettors are leaning that way, a low percentage for this magnitude of a game.
By now everyone knows the Lakers head to Orlando with a 2-0 lead, but if the Magic’s botched layup/missed goaltending call at the end of regulation had been scored, this series would be tied 1-1. That is all the difference in the world according to history, as only three teams have ever come back from this deficit to win the NBA Finals, most recently the Miami Heat in 2006.
The “comfortable” lead has not changed Kobe Bryant’s focus however. Bryant has a promise for Game 3 on Tuesday night.
"We're about to kick it up," he said. "You'd better believe it. We're close. You see what I'm saying? This is the finals. We're going to be ready to go."
Courtney Lee missed a wide-open, alley-oop layup that would have won Game 2 at the fourth-quarter buzzer Sunday night. It was another chapter in a long history of Magic misery, one that now has them 0-6 in finals games.
Orlando has been able to come back from seemingly every heartbreak this season - injuries, four last-second losses in the playoffs and series deficits in two rounds. But this could be too tough a challenge.
"We've just got to go home and take care of business," Magic center Dwight Howard said. "The Lakers did a good job of protecting their home, and now it's our turn to do the same thing. We've been in some tough situations. We've just got to fight our way out."
The Magic would need quite a turnaround. Their backcourt has been dreadful. Rafer Alston and Jameer Nelson, who returned for the finals after being out since early February because of shoulder surgery, were so inconsistent that Van Gundy benched them for most of the fourth quarter to have 6-foot-10 forward Hedo Turkoglu run the point.
The Magic had 20 turnovers, just 22 assists and no true ballhandler to make the Lakers pay for double-teaming Howard.
Don’t consider the series over yet however. One of the streakiest teams in the league all season, Orlando has shot well at home. It plays with a carefree attitude, and Bryant says that's reason to be wary.
"This is a very loosey-goosey team we're playing against," he said. "You seen some of the shots they hit. Those are tough shots - supposed to be tough shots. For them it's like shooting fish in a barrel. They're just thinking about Game 3, and so are we."
As mentioned in the opening, one of the key handicapping concepts backing the Magic for Game 3 is REVENGE. Orlando boasts several Top StatFox Power Trends focused on this motivation. Including the Game 2 Magic ATS win and UNDER result, here are a few of the revenge angles that will be in play for Tuesday’s Game 3:
* ORLANDO is 33-11 ATS (+20.9 Units) revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ORLANDO 102.2, OPPONENT 93.9 - (Rating = 3*)
* ORLANDO is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) revenging 2 straight losses where opp scored 100 or more points over the last 3 seasons. The average score was ORLANDO 100.9, OPPONENT 100.5 - (Rating = 1*)
* ORLANDO is 28-13 ATS (+13.7 Units) revenging a road loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ORLANDO 101.6, OPPONENT 95.0 - (Rating = 1*)
The Lakers have been a solid bet as a road dog though. Over the last two seasons, they are 24-12 ATS in that role.
In terms of the total, revenge for Orlando may also play a role in taking this game UNDER the posted number of 198:
* ORLANDO is 26-15 UNDER (+9.5 Units) revenging a road loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ORLANDO 101.6, OPPONENT 95.0 - (Rating = 1*)
Tip time is set for 9:00 PM ET on ABC.
NBA: Orlando looks to even the score (8:05 PM ET, ABC)
2009-06-08
The great thing about the NBA Finals is no matter how magnified a blowout win or loss is, it only counts for one game. The Los Angeles Lakers showed in Game 1 against Orlando why they were favored to win the NBA title, with conclusive 100-75 mauling. This was the third consecutive full team effort from the Lakers, who might be finally matching everyone’s expectations. Orlando will try to bounce back in Game 2 on Sunday night. Most bettors don’t believe they will, as with the pointspread set at Lakers -6.5, over 90% of the early action goes that way according to the BETTING TRENDS page.
If Kobe Bryant continues with the “mean face” he might land a few minor acting roles as villain or thug. The way he played in the series opener, he might be on his way to MVP after scoring 40 points, while dishing out eight assists and snaring the same amount of rebounds. It was rather evident, Bryant was setting the tone for the Lakers intensity and anybody wearing a gold uniform that wasn’t going to play hard, might as well grab some bench or face the wrath of Kobe the Terrible.
The Los Angeles defensive game plan was brilliant, holding Orlando to 29.9 percent shooting. The Magic are unlikely to shoot as woefully again in the series, nonetheless the difference between how Cleveland defended Orlando’s long range shooters and what the Lakers did was clear. The Cavaliers defense is more structured and is not as good straying 20 feet away from the rim. Los Angeles, when focused, has the athletes and length to contest three point shots and when Orlando players give ball-fakes and drive to basket, a number of tall Lakers are part of the greeting committee.
That was the Lakers first cover of a NBA Finals game in last dozen tries (1-10-1 ATS) and it does not guarantee they will cover the 6.5-point spread at Sportsbook.com for next contest. Since 1997, the last 20 teams that won by 10 or more points are only 12-8 and 10-8-2 ATS in next contest.
You have to chuckle about what teams say about injuries. Jameer Nelson was either “definitely out” or “will not play under any circumstances”, yet a guy wearing number 14, with “Nelson” on a back of deep water blue Orlando jersey played better than 23 minutes in the opening contest. Coach Stan Van Gundy may have opened the Pandora’s Box in letting Nelson play so much, as Rafer Alston was rendered useless. Alston is smart enough to know Nelson is a better shooter, probably a better playmaker, but it was he who took over the squad at the point guard and helped bring the team into the Finals.
Nelson was immediately effective upon hitting the floor, however after about the six minute mark of playing; he was ineffectual like the rest of his teammates. Van Gundy has potentially hazardous situation to workout.
The Magic got away a little too quickly from the big man in the middle, when the game was still within reach just before the midpoint of third quarter. Dwight Howard totaled six shots, with ONE make and was 10 for 16 from the charity stripe. Orlando offense works best most nights when they play inside-out, giving the touches the broad-shouldered one has requested. The Magic are 15-4 ATS off a road loss and 14-3 against the spread if it is by double digits.
Orlando complained outwardly about not being mentally ready, but what they were really saying they weren’t ready for was Kobe and the Lakers actually prepared to play 48 minutes. The Magic have had two days of preparation to make adjustments and forgettable loss is easy to shake for a team that is 13-5-1 ATS who about 71 hours between assignments.
Phil Jackson will presume Howard will see the ball with a higher frequency and be more aggressive in taking it to the hoop. His players might need to be a few inches even closer in second encounter, with Orlando likely hitting more of their shots. Offensively, keep attacking the Magic off the dribble and have motion that sets up Lamar Odom and Luke Walton for interior baskets. The Lakers also are very solid off two days of rest with 8-2 ATS mark.
The total has been reduced to 202 and L.A. is 12-2 UNDER as a postseason favorite. You have to figure the Magic bunch can’t play any worse and are 20-11 UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 200.
The start time Sunday for Game 2 moves up an hour to 8 Eastern and Hedu Turkoglu and the guys will have to bring more game if they expect to improve upon recent 7-2 ATS run.
NBA Finals Wagering Preview
2009-06-04
“Do you believe in Magic?” Whether you like the original hit song by the Lovin’ Spoonful from 1965 and the countless times it has been used in television commercials or the updated version by Disney Channel’s Aly and AJ, the question remains the same. Do you believe in the Orlando Magic? Oddsmakers and most bettors don’t, instead choosing to side with the heavily favored Lakers (-260) for the series, according to Sportsbook.com.
Dwight Howard and his gang of long range bombers have certainly been up to the test, eliminating Philadelphia as expected, Boston as presumed (without Kevin Garnett) and Cleveland most unexpectedly. In many ways Orlando has grown up right before our very eyes.
The Magic gave away games to the Sixers and Celtics, yet closed out each on the road to advance. When LeBron James made thaumaturgy shot to save Cleveland in Game 2 of East Finals, Orlando could have suffered carry over, yet did not.
We have seen the maturation of Dwight Howard from somewhat passive Clark Kent to angry superstar, demanding the ball and when the pill came his way, put up exemplary numbers to lead his team. Even coach Stan Van Gundy, who has been come under much scrutiny (here for example), has grown as head coach, working out details with Howard and not letting ego get in the way and has his team four wins away from being NBA champions.
Do you believe in the Magic?
Oddsmakers, like those at Sportsbook.com don’t seem to, making the Lakers -260 favorites to take the series. The most popular exact game wager is Los Angeles in six (+220 bet). Others don’t necessarily see it that way.
Mark Lawrence of Playbook.com offered this about The Finals - “Interesting technical aspects conflict in this matchup. The Lakers have been miserable in championship finals the past two rounds, going 3-8 SU and 0-10-1 ATS. On the flip side they've pushed the Magic around in the series, going 29-10 SU and 24-12-1 ATS, despite dropping both games this season. The feeling here is it would be no surprise if either team wins.”
Also made a call to Joe Nelson of Nellysports.com, who is on the Playbook roster and he gave his insights. “The Magic made at least ten 3-point shots in all four games against the Lakers in the regular season the last two years, winning three of the four games. Orlando shot over 40 percent in the Eastern Conference Finals and if they continue to shoot well from long-range, the Magic will win this series and become the NBA champions.”
Nelson added, “The Lakers are a heavy favorite for the series but with the Magic winning twice in Los Angeles in the regular season (last two years), it would not be a surprise to see Orlando steal one of the first two games. Much like last season the Finals will feature extreme coast-to-coast travel with over 2,500 miles separating these venues. The Lakers went 0-6 ATS in Finals last season and Los Angeles was just 5-5 ATS in home contests in the first three rounds of the playoffs. With two impressive wins to wipe out Denver in the Western Conference Finals the Lakers have alleviated some of the concerns raised early in the playoffs but this will be a tough match-up for Los Angeles and Orlando has the talent and versatility to be a serious threat in the series despite the solid underdog status.”
Orlando has given several reasons to like them. The Magic are 12-7 in the playoffs and after dropping first four games to Philly as favorites, they are 11-4 ATS since. Orlando is 5-5 SU and ATS on the road under postseason pressure and 32-19 straight up and against the number for the entire season. Hedo Turkoglu and the fellas can play with teams scoring bundles of points, because of perimeter shooting and are 16-4 ATS in road games versus offensive clubs scoring 103 or more points a game.
The Lakers have shown unwillingness to go all out until necessary since the playoffs started, which could prove fatal against Orlando. Denver made a ton of long range shots in first four encounters against Lakers, due to poor defensive rotations. Derek Fisher is still defensive liability and Lamar Odom; it depends which multiple personality shows up at game time. Howard has the strength and power to push around Pau Gasol and draw fouls expediently on Andrew Bynum.
“Do you believe in Magic”
Steve Makinen of StatFox.com thinks Orlando can cause Phil Jackson’s squad trouble, just not enough to wager against them. “Last I saw, Orlando swept this regular season series, while the Lakers took both games from the Cavaliers. In my opinion, oddsmakers have inflated the line of Game 1 of the NBA Finals by at least 1-1/2 points, installing L.A. as a 6-point favorite. If you recall last year, Los Angeles was overwhelmed in the finals by an outstanding defensive club in Boston. While Orlando isn’t quite as good overall or defensively as that team, the Magic are still strong enough to compete and possibly win this series. In the end I figure it comes down to how well Orlando shoots it from the perimeter. If it’s anything like the regular season in which the Magic made 12 3-point shots in each game versus the Lakers, they will win. However, I think the series format of home court advantage (2-3-2) favors L.A., and that will be the deciding factor.”
Everything since being humiliated 131-92 in Game 6 at Boston last year has pointed to this for Los Angeles. The Lakers are well-rested and are 8-1 ATS when playing only their second game in seven days this season. Gasol showed his wherewithal in making big baskets in Games 5 and 6 against Denver and could force Howard into foul trouble if he becomes overaggressive.
Rashard Lewis and Turkoglu are primarily perimeter players and if Odom shows up mentally and Trevor Ariza continues to distinguish himself, the Lakers should be able to hold down the scoring of this duo. On the other end of the floor, Odom can be a handful for either, with inside and outside capabilities. The Lakers bench has become increasingly more useful, as the dates have come off the calendar since the end of the regular season. Jordan Farmar, Shannon Brown and Luke Walton have all given efficient minutes since mid-May.
Then you have the “Kobe” factor. Bryant was denied ring he so dearly wants last season and has been on a mission since. He’s still selfish from time to time, however, in the last couple of years, that has had more to do with desire to win, than just wanting to improve image. Whether it is Courtney Lee or Mickael Pietrus trying to defend Bryant, he should school them individually and carve up Magic defense when they try and double team with his crisp, accurate passes.
Lastly, is the coaching difference. Phil Jackson was strangely out-maneuvered by Doc Rivers last spring, however in hindsight, Boston had more players motivated towards a cause and Rivers pushed all the right buttons with what was a better team. Jackson was at his best against Denver. After getting a read on exactly what the Nuggets were doing, he had his team effectively took away what Denver did best in last two games and Chauncey Billups and Carmelo Anthony were disabled after strong beginning.
Like any coach, when things are going well, they look smart, when they don’t, it’s about how they react. If the Magic lose first two games at Staples Center, does the surly side of Van Gundy return? If the Lakers are able to deny Howard touches, does that create more friction between Superman and the coach? It has been Van Gundy’s M.O. to micromanage when situations become stressful, how will he respond? This could be telling factor in this series.
The action starts Thursday night on ABC, with Lakers as 6.5-point favorites and total of 206. Before placing wager, know the underdog is on 6-0 ATS roll.
Do you believe in the Orlando Magic?
NBA: Lakers stir pot, try to chew up Nuggets (9:00 PM ET, ABC)
2009-05-29
It turned out to be true; Kobe Bryant of the Lakers really does have teammates that want to win and are willing to put forth the effort to do so. Because Kobe finally was comforted with company, Los Angeles is within one game of return trip to NBA Finals, though not without a little controversy along the way, which makes for good playoff fodder. After reading more about this Game 6 Western Conference Finals encounter, be sure to head right over to the LIVE ODDS, BETTING TRENDS, and TEAM STATISTICS pages for the latest info to make sure you’re on the right side of the wagering action.
An anonymous member of the Denver Nuggets told the Denver Post, "The Lakers paid $50,000 to win that game," he said. "They got their money's worth." He was referring to 25 grand in fines David Stern’s minions handed out to coach Phil Jackson and the Lakers organization for comments after Game 4.
Denver’s George Karl lamented essentially, the squeaky wheel gets taken care of and the Lakers got the benefit of calls for critical Game 5. Evidently Karl has no sense of history, since this coaching showmanship has gone on since Eddie Gottlieb’s Philadelphia Warriors defeated the Chicago Staggs to win first ever NBA title in 1947.
Having watched the entire game with no sound (don’t ask, just trust it made sense to me), I never got the sense the officiating was one-sided. I did however take note that Denver stopped taking the ball to the rim in the fourth quarter and was 5 for 21 shooting in last 12 minutes. I also noticed the strong interior defense of Denver completely fell apart in the fourth quarter, as the Lakers ran screens to set up isolation plays and scored six baskets that I recall within three feet of basket.
The first 17 minutes of the game was played like any regular season game, as neither team was emotionally involved, until both teams had manufactured exciting dunks, which revved up the crowd and the emotions of players.
Lamar Odom, showed why he can be the difference between L.A. being among the best teams, to NBA champs when he adds 19 points, 14 rebounds and 4 blocks. Derek Fisher tossed in a dozen points and though he saw limited minutes, Andrew Bynum contributed when on the floor. In fact, the Lakers bench outscored the Denver reserves 34-26, which is telling, with final margin of victory nine points.
Denver is 17-7 ATS revenging a road loss and is backed into corner. The Nuggets never matched the same intensity they had the first two games in La-La Land, even as they built seven-point lead midway thru the third quarter. This was proven as they had no answer to blunt Lakers rush that saw them run off 23 of next 28 points to wrestle control of contest. The Lakers finally challenged Karl’s troops with unfamiliar style, playing intense defense.
The Lakers enter Game 6 as five-point underdogs and are 8-3 ATS when Sportsbook.com or another oddsmaker places them in that position. Only one game has exceeded the total in West Finals and Los Angeles is 9-1 UNDER in conference finals. Denver is 7-0 against the number off a straight up loss and is 8-1 ATS as home favorites. Of the last 12 games the Nuggets have played against winning teams, 10 have gone UNDER the number.
It’s do-or-die for Carmelo Anthony and mates, and as the Lakers have shown, they don’t necessarily have the killer instinct to polish off opponent. If should be quite an atmosphere at the Pepsi Center, with Denver trying to avoid falling to 3-11 ATS when trailing in playoff series and head back to downtown Los Angeles for Sunday showdown.